EUROVISION 2019: SEMI-FINAL 1 PRE-SHOW PREDICTION

Welcome back!

Its finally here! I've had almost 2 months to sit with all of the entries and I'm ready to present my predictions of the show before rehearsals. Note that I will be re-predicting both semi-finals on the day of the semi-final on this blog and these predictions will absolutely change by then, but people wanted my predictions before we hit rehearsals so this is my predictions from what we've got right now.

Semi-final 1 is by far the most unpredictable semi-final out of the two, and for that reason its the one I prefer. I have very little confidence in my prediction here, but my SF1 prediction last year pre-show was 8/10 and I had no faith in that either, so anything can happen!

Let's begin my pre-show prediction:

17th - Montenegro

This has to be last place, right? It will have its niche televote audience but absolutely nowhere near enough to pick up no more than 1 or 2 points. The only country I can see handing them the majority of their points is Serbia, and even here I can't see the Serbian jurors going mad for such a naff song.

16th - Georgia

I was going back and forth as to whether Georgia or Montenegro will finish last and I went with Georgia finishing 16th just because I think he is gradually improving and could have some jury appeal that gives him a minor boost. The song quite simply doesn't have the broad appeal to finish any higher than this.

15th - Belarus

Unfortuantely for this cute bop I can see jurors slaughtering Like It, and for televoters I just can't see people voting for this over Cyprus, which does this song way better. This could even possibly come last place as Montenegro have Serbia's vote and Georgia have more jury appeal, but I've put the song at 15th for now.

14th - Estonia

I think we're all overthinking our predictions about this being the break the locals needed during Portugal and Iceland. Maybe 'Storm' is going to be that song but that doesn't mean that people will vote for it. The song I have down as a televote top 10 at the moment, but I think jurors will drag this down accordingly. This is the first entry I'm not ruling out though, this could definitely qualify depending on what they bring with their staging and it could end up in my qualifier predictions on the day of the semi-final.

13th - San Marino

Once again, I think we're all doing a bit too much by saying San Marino is going to qualify with this one. I actually think that this presents itself as a serious entry therefore it won't have the joke entry televote appeal he previously had, while still not screaming comtemporary to the juries, therefore I think it will just end up on the other side of the border. Not ruling this one out, but at the moment I can't see it getting through.

12th - Poland

This might be a shock to some people, but I think Poland are in danger here. Its the semi-final of the risk and being one of the first to perform with such a unique entry is a risk in itself. Not to mention the countries that have a larger Polish diaspora are voting in semi-final 2. They have some friends but I really don't know if it'll be enough to qualify. If they bring it on stage over some others though I'll probably change my mind.

11th - Finland

I do think that this is quite simply a better version of Estonia, both in terms of the song and staging concepts we've seen so far, and with better audio mixing in Tel Aviv and the fact its meme icon Darude, this could actually do alright and is an underdog. I still can't visualise it qualifying over my top 10 which is why it's my 11th right now, but all can change during rehearsals. If Sebastian's still not vocally capable to pull this off, its gone.

10th - Australia

Look, if there was a year that Australia miss out this would definitely be it. Their very few televote friends are voting in semi-final 2 and this is possibly the biggest risk to their jury support they've came up against so far. Performing before Iceland would make any entry feel forgettable though and I definitely forget about this one as a result. If they tweak the staging up though and actually pick a good part of the song for the recap instead of what we have now, then it definitely could creep in.

9th - Hungary

Hungary is another country I see going either way and there's no certainty how it'll go. I think the revamp actually weakened the song but then I think this song emotes better live anyway, and if he doesn't hold back live I can see this being more memorable than we initially though. Not to mention Hungary's track record is there and this is more jury friendly than Origo was, therefore I'll say its going through for the time being.

8th - Portugal

Maybe I'm putting my personal opinion before my prediction and saying that this will go through is a risk but surely this can't be left behind? There has never been anything like Telemóveis in the contest before and I hope that is recognised. This could totally go either way but I see it actually just sitting in the middle, being consistently mid-table with both televote and jury.

7th - Serbia

I can see Serbia being a jury favourite. Slovenia and Montenegro should throw this good televote points and at least half of other countries should at least have it in their televote top 10, and that on top of a really good jury score will really help this one. I personally don't think the song is doing enough to deserve to be a finalist but personal opinions aside this is Serbia and Nevena we're talking about, and she has the power to save this one.

6th - Slovenia

This is also a really risky move as I can see it being a shock non-qualifier just as much but surely Slovenia is too high quality to be left behind. I really don't know who will go for this more, televote or jury, I just know it'll have its audience over both and I hope that its enough to get them through because the final would be less rich without Sebi.

5th - Belgium

Another risk as with the wrong staging this could end up a mess but I think Belgium should do fine this time round. I see 'Wake Up' as a jury favourite if Eliot holds up a good vocal and the staging reflects the song's sinister atmosphere, but I might have been too generous ranking it 5th as I don't think it'll be loved enough by the televote to finish any higher than this.

4th - Greece

Greece is the first sure-fire qualifier for me. Even if they royally mess up the staging Katerine's vocal and the song alone should be enough to pull them through unlike last year. They also have a fantastic spot in the running order and I think its safe to say we will see Greece in the final.

3rd - Iceland

Iceland could go either way in this semi-final of the risk but I hope that this is the actual outcome. Hatari are serving us a concept and as long as the media begins to surround them and promote their message over Eurovision week then this could create a domino effect and hook more and more people in as time goes on.

2nd - Czech Republic

This is going to shock a lot of people but this is going to be the local anthem the casual viewers are going to need in this semi-final. Czech Republic are heading for another top 10 this year and I honestly don't understand why nobody is mentioning how much of a dark horse they are. The song is incredibly catchy, has broad appeal, has the quirky element for the televoters while having the radio-friendly well produced hook for the jurors, and this is all coming from someone who isn't a fan of the song. This is a serious dark horse.

1st - Cyprus

I spoke on my Twitter about how this semi-final seems to have no overall favourite in it, therefore we could have an Alexander Rybak 2018 situation arise once again, and I think Cyprus could be the entry in this semi-final to do that. A well-produced entry that gets the party started and appeals to both the televote and jury accordingly. A risky move because I don't know if she'll vocally be doing enough live but I have time to change that in my post-rehearsal prediction. At the time of writing this, I think Cyprus is winning this semi-final.

There are my semi-final 1 predictions! Remember these opinions will inevitably change over rehearsals and I will be posting a new blog with any changes right before the night of the first semi-final. Do you agree, do you disagree? Leave a like and a comment, or tweet me @ESCTBy letting me know. Thanks for reading!