EUROVISION 2019: SEMI-FINAL 2 PRE-SHOW PREDICTION

Welcome back to my blog!

Today we turn to semi-final 2. This is the semi-final that I think is the easiest to predict, so naturally I'll get more wrong. Remember, this is my pre-show review only and I'll be making changes to my prediction in my post-rehearsal review on the day of the semi-final.

18th - Moldova

Moldova feels like the obvious last place finish at the moment. I'm not sure if even having Sunstroke Project doing the staging could help this one because this song is just so lifeless and dated that no energy can be jolted into it, and I actually forget its in the contest. Anna Odobescu deserved more.

17th - North Macedonia

The more and more I think about this the more I realise its doomed. I'm happy that North Macedonia have announced Tamara will just be alone on stage, as that strips away the cringy music video where she was the best component, but I just see this being swallowed up in the running order and not holding up against the rest of the competition. Maybe its harsh, but I see everything above it being supported more.

16th - Croatia

I've heard some rumours about how this is going to be staged, and let me say that if they are true we're in for a treat. However, in such a strong semi-final with ultimately more than 10 high quality songs, this isn't one of them and I don't think much can be done to save it and get it through.

15th - Latvia

This is a classy song that I think will really charm the jurors. Remember, they would've comfortably put Funny Girl through last year and I think that 'That Night' is yet another quality number from Latvia that professionals will respect. The televote is going to be practically non-existent though, about from some neighbour points from Lithuania and maybe Russia, therefore I couldn't place this one any higher.

14th - Denmark

Denmark has a cutesy song but nothing more and I simply don't know if that's enough to qualify in this semi-final. It's not going to be overwhelmingly loved by either the televote or jury and I don't even know if it'll be remembered. Denmark seem to love to go back to this vanilla, happy clappy sound often and it usually doesn't do that well. However, something keeps telling me that Denmark's going to be the shock qualifier that I'm going to be annoyed by though and I can't shake it, even if I have absolutely no logic to back that one up.

13th - Ireland

I think Ireland might end up suffering with a similar fate to Denmark. Its the cutesy song buried in the running order that may just end up not gathering enough from both sides to cut through. I will say that when watching the running order video, the warmth of Ireland does feel more appealing following Armenia, that comes across quite cold, and I think that might be to her benefit. Let's not forget a lot of casual viewers are going for this one, but that could just be because its so inoffensive that you couldn't hate it if you tried. Really unsure on this one.

12th - Armenia

Here's the shocker. I don't know why but I'm feeling like Armenia's going to suffer a little bit here. It's a decent, powerful open to the show and I think the jurors will like this but I think there's a real lack of televote appeal. 18 entries later it becomes forgettable and I think we've lost better songs that opened the show in weaker semi-finals over the years. Not to mention its really difficult to decipher what she's even singing. I'm nervous about this one.

11th - Lithuania

Now this is one that people may not expect, but I do think that Lithuania is a bit of a dark horse. A lot of casuals who have heard the song seem to like it, and you saw how this mid-tempo pop number managed to wipe away more powerful contenders in the Lithuanian national final. A lot of countries with Lithuanian diaspora are also voting in this semi-final alongside Latvia and Russia, plus its not a bad song at all and if there were ever a dark horse, this one could be it.

10th - Norway

Putting Norway only 10th in my prediction may shock a lot of people, but let's remember that 'Spirit In The Sky' will be absolute jury catnip. I think the televote will like this number but its sandwiched inbetween a lot of powerful songs so it might not even be remembered that well once voting opens, similar to Finland last year. For now though I think it's going through.

9th - Austria

Out of all the 10 qualifiers, this is the one I'm most unsure about because of the fan reaction, but I want to be confident that 'Limits' will make it through. Jurors will hopefully respect the song and the well-written lyrics alongside PÆNDA's vocal capability that I'm certain will deliver. Not to mention Austria have a great qualification streak, so I hope that's not lost with this one, as its one of my favourite Austrian entries this decade.

8th - Romania

I definitely think that Romania will be back in the final this year. 'On A Sunday' is a fantastic dark pop number and I think its mysterious nature will draw people in. I can see a fairly decent televote and jury score for this which will see it in the final. It's not a certainty, but with the right staging this song will really pop live.

7th - Switzerland

A lot of people think this could win the semi-final, and I think its way off. Although I see it as a qualifier and people loving the song, I just don't think the execution of 'She Got Me' is going to be as desired when it hits the stage. People are quick to drop Sacha Jean Baptiste's name in but unlike her work with Tamta we've seen nothing, and what we've seen from Luca has been... questionable. Really not sure if this will hit as hard as some expect, but we'll have a better idea after rehearsals and if he does impress I'll change my prediction before the show.

6th - Malta

I've been unsure on Malta's qualification chances since 'Chameleon' was announced. Initially, I was unsure on whether Michela will be able to deliver an uptempo number and whether it will be visually interesting. I still think there are some risks with the drop being so low key, but vocally she will deliver and she's working with a good team, so hopefully its enough for Malta to make it through.

5th - Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan are closing out semi-final 2 and for good reason. They have a high quality song and I can see both the jury and televote warming to it. Chingiz will vocally pull it off but I hope he has a team around him and choreography is tight, as I think he has the ability to come across a bit cringy at times. I'm interested in seeing what they do with this one, and I do think Azerbaijan are back in the final at the very least.

4th - Albania

This is a serious dark horse. The only song in its native language, the authenticity of this entry really cuts through. Vocally, the jurors can't fault it, and I'm actually confident in Albania with staging this year, as some of the staging intel I've heard sounds incredible if proved to be true. Absolutely qualifying in my mind, and I think it has a big possibility of finishing quite high up.

3rd - Russia

Russia have a great set-up here. A handful of countries guaranteed to give Sergey points as he is a familar name in their country, plus the familiarity of being a returning act and a song that is really strong. Staging-wise I'm still uncertain what they will do but I'm expecting it to actually be quite stripped back and it could pay off for Russia. If this was in semi-final 1, I'd have it down as a sure-fire winner of the semi-final, but in this semi-final I think there are others that will overshadow its chances of winning the semi-final.

2nd - Sweden

Sweden are once again delivering quality and it will be respected. John Lundvik's gospel inspired song is exactly what the jurors went for last year, and its going to be executed even better by the Swedes this time so who's to say this won't be a jury winner? The jury vote will be split between many acts in such a strong semi-final so it may not have the same effect as Cesar did but Sweden should at least finish between the top 5.

1st - The Netherlands

I tossed and turned between The Netherlands and Sweden considering which one to put down as the semi-final winner, and as obvious as it may seem i think 'Arcade' is going to take it. I'm starting to understand more and more why The Netherlands is a favourite and I think that the authenticity Arcade presents will cut through and do serious damage. Its the favourite to win for a reason and I think in terms of the semi-final, it will do just that.

There are my semi-final 2 predictions! Remember these opinions will inevitably change over rehearsals and I will be posting a new blog with any changes right before the night of the second semi-final. Do you agree, do you disagree? Leave a like and a comment, or tweet me @ESCTBy letting me know. Thanks for reading!